The recently concluded ‘historic’ summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korea’s strongman Kim-Jong- un offers many insights into the art and science of negotiation. Several experts on body language have analysed the body movements of these two actors and it is not my intention to dwell on that as I am not an expert in that field.
To put things in perspective the US had, in the past, great negotiators. Henry Kissinger was one highly exceptional negotiator who travelled between Egypt, Israel and Beirut to negotiate between sworn enemies. He succeeded to such an extent that Golda Mier, the then Israel Prime Minister and Anwar Sadat the President of Egypt, both opponents agreed to cooperate. Golda, in fact, kept her grandson’s name as Anwar. This was despite the fact that Kissinger was a Jew and therefore the Arab world viewed him with slight suspicion. What a contrast, therefore, it is to see Trump putting up a one-man show in Sentosa.
One of the principles of negotiation is that one has to understand who the opponent is and what are his strong and weak points. But in order to gauge that correctly one has to have an open mind. Any preconceived ideas about others and more critically about oneself vitiates the right understanding. And it is here that Trump has, in my view failed miserably. He seems to have an exalted view of himself and his ability to cut the deals (as admitted in his press conference). This exaggerated notion about his own competence got amply reflected in his very aggressive and overconfident posturing and displaying the big brother attitude. This gets reflected in the so-called muscular handshake and patting on Kim-Jong’s back and talking more than what is absolutely necessary.
The second principle of successful negotiation is not to display anxiety or any emotion during the meeting and not to give the game away. Grandmasters in the game of chess usually are expressionless giving no clue about their next move. Here again, Trump failed miserably. He was so tense while alighting out of Air Force 1 and while doing the handshake while his counterpart was absolutely expressionless.
The next principle of a successful negotiation is a Win-Win approach. In this summit what was expected from the US side was an unequivocal declaration that verifiable denuclearisation within a stipulated time frame along with a firm assurance to not resort to human rights violations. From the North Korean viewpoint, the two principal agendas were to lift the embargo and gain legitimacy to the ruler. I must say that Trump and his team of experts could not get the written commitments on denuclearisation and human rights abuse. In fact, the latter was not even reflected in the joint statement. The entire wordings were so delightfully vague that gives ample elbow room for Kim-Jong to prevaricate. On the other hand, the North Korean Ruler got worldwide publicity and suddenly appeared to overshadow everyone. On top of that Trump was so eager to please his counterpart that he agreed, much to the astonishment of the think tank in the US, to stop military exercises in South Korea. In the art of negotiation, it is often advisable to take a back seat and resist the temptation of being a prima donna as that stance gives ample leverage to play hard. Henry Kissinger was the master of this game and he gives a very humorous account of this in his memoirs when Nixon sent him to discuss with Brezhnev the Soviet cooperation on Vietnam. During the flight to Moscow Kissinger received a message to be forwarded to Brezhnev by Richard Nixon which indicated that he is sending the Secretary of State with full powers to negotiate! Russians not generally known to be quick in their replies immediately, while Kissinger was in transit, replied back that they were indeed happy that this time the SoS is coming with full powers to negotiate and no wonder the first thing Brezhnev said while shaking hands with Henry Kissinger was ‘I see now you have come with full powers’. In negotiation, it is critical to pause, reflect and give a studied answer than trying to be extra smart and play the big brother. Unfortunately, this is what was played out in Sentosa.
Finally, as mentioned earlier international diplomacy is akin to a game of intense chess. No result is visible till the last move is made. Silence is golden and is often the name of the game. The more one talks the more he gives away. Wisely Kim-Jong-un did not hold any press conference while our man went eloquent with his press conference praising his ability to cut the deals and that he has not slept for 25 hours. The jury is out but I feel this was a win-lose game played by the US and Kim-Jong-un flew back with all the medals and trophies.
